How Have the Favorites Fared at Each of the Last Three FIFA World Cups?
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is rapidly approaching, with just four months remaining between now and the tournament opener between Mexico and South Africa at the Estadio Azteca on June 11th. The upcoming showpiece will be the biggest ever edition of the competition, with 48 nations competing instead of the usual 32. The result is a tournament that will span the length and breadth of North America as a whopping 104 games will take place across five weeks, culminating with the July 19th final at MetLife Stadium.
Online betting sites already have their favorites priced up. The latest World Cup odds currently list reigning European Champions Spain as the 9/2 favorites to claim the famous gold trophy for the second time in their history. Led by talismanic teenager Lamine Yamal, La Roja romped to glory at Euro 2024 two years ago, beating England in the Berlin final courtesy of Mikel Oyarzabal’s late winner. But is that favorite tag a blessing or a curse?
Every four years, a favorite rocks up to the World Cup expected to sweep all before them en route to the title. But how have the last three frontrunners lived with the weight of expectation? Let’s take a look.
2022: Brazil
At the most recent World Cup in Qatar, Brazil were considered the narrow 4/1 favorites. The Selecao headed to the Arabian Gulf as the record champions with five previous triumphs to their name, and with a stacked squad led by the likes of Neymar and Vinicius Jr., further success was expected. The one sole question mark over the side was in the striking department, with Tottenham’s Richarlison leading the line, a far cry from superstars such as Ronaldo and Romario, players who previously led the South American giants to glory.
Richarlison immediately set about proving the doubters wrong, netting a brace against Serbia in Brazil’s tournament-opening 2-0 win. Midfielder Casemiro was then on song, bagging the winner in the second group game against Switzerland to secure top spot in Group G with a game to spare. A heavily rotated side then surprisingly lost to Cameroon courtesy of Vincent Aboubakar’s last-gasp winner, but that wasn’t considered a catastrophe with first place in the group already wrapped up.
Brazil began to flex their muscles in the second round, thumping South Korea 4-1 after goals from Vinicius, Neymar, Richarlison, and Lucas Paqueta helped the Selecao to a four goal half time lead. That set up a crunch clash with perennial overachievers Croatia in the quarterfinals, a stage where the Brazilians had faltered in recent years. In 2006, 2010, and 2018, Brazil fell at the last-eight stage, and despite being huge favorites, the Selecao would fall victim to that hoodoo once again.
After a goalless 90 minutes, Neymar looked to have put Brazil through to the semifinals with a brilliant goal deep into extra time. Then, with just three minutes remaining, the Croatians struck back through Dinamo Zagreb striker Bruno Petković. That forced a penalty shootout, and it was Croatia’s keeper Dominik Livakovic who became the hero, saving from Rodrygo and captain Marquinhos to secure his side a famous victory.
2018: Germany
Germany headed to Russia in 2018 as reigning World Champions and 4/1 favorites to repeat as champions. Four years prior, they thumped hosts Brazil 7-1 in the semifinals before knocking off Lionel Messi’s Argentina in the final thanks to Mario Gotze’s extra-time winner. As such, their position at the top of the betting boards was unsurprising, but much to the bookies’ delight, Die Mannschaft was about to fall victim to the vaunted Champion’s Curse.
France, Italy, and Spain had all suffered stunning group stage exits when heading into the World Cup as reigning champions, and the same fate was about to befall the Germans. They were stunned by Mexico in their opening game of the tournament as Hirving Lozano netted the only goal in a 1-0 El Tri victory in Moscow. Joachim Low’s side would strike back with a stunning comeback victory against Sweden in game two, Toni Kroos’ rasping injury-time free kick sealing all three points.
As a result, Germany’s mandate became simple: Beat already eliminated South Korea in the final group game, and they were through to the second round as group winners. Shockingly, they couldn’t get the job done. Injury time goals from Kim Young-gwon and Son Heung-min sealed a stunning 2-0 victory for the Taegeuk Warriors in Kazan, handing Germany their first ever group stage exit.
2014: Brazil
Brazil hosted the 2014 World Cup, and the nation expected. Talismanic striker Neymar was expected to lead the hosts to glory, and the bookies dutifully installed them as short-priced 3/1 favorites. When the Selecao breezed through the group phase unbeaten, Neymar netting four goals in the process, that lofty billing seemed to be accurate.
In the knockout stage, Brazil met with back-to-back games with their South American contemporaries. Chile was vanquished in the round of 16, Neymar netting the decisive spotkick in a nerve-shredding penalty shootout. Then, Colombia was downed in the quarterfinals as the player of the tournament, James Rodriguez, was powerless to resist the blistering hosts.
However, in that quarter-final clash against the Colombians, disaster struck as Neymar was downed with a back injury after being hit with the knee of defender Juan Zúñiga. If that wasn’t bad enough, captain Thiago Silva was also ruled out of the semifinal against Germany through suspension. And it was that gaping hole in defence that proved fatal.
In the semis, Germany ripped through the Brazilian defence time and again, shockingly scoring four first-half goals in just six minutes en route to a thumping 7-1 win. That semifinal rout remains one of the most gob-smacking moments in FIFA World Cup history, and the Brazilians will be aiming to do everything in their power to banish that memory once and for all in North America this summer.
